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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : March 10, 2008

March 10, 2008

Between Tuesday and Thursday, mortgage rates rose as much as during any three-day period in recent memory before settling back a bit on Friday’s jobs data. Fourteen speeches from members of the Federal Reserve were partly to blame for the mortgage rate chaos, but several other factors played a part, too. One of the biggest […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : February 11, 2008

February 11, 2008

Mortgage markets are conflicted about the U.S. economy and the confusion is impacting home buyers. If you’ve recently tried to lock a mortgage rate, you’ve probably experienced it personally. On one hand, reports of plunging sales suggest that the economy is slowing more quickly than expected. This is recessionary and tends to be good for […]

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Commercial Real Estate Update

January 23, 2008

According to the most recent Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) investor survey, sentiment seems to have shifted markedly to “Hold” or “uncertainty” with the exception of the multifamily sector as the following chart indicates: Buy Sell Hold Office-CBD 24% 12% 64% Office-Suburban 24% 14% 62% Industrial-Warehouse 39% 6% 55% Industrial-R & D 20% 13% 67% […]

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Be Thankful Gas Prices Aren’t Keeping Pace With Oil Prices

January 17, 2008

On average, Americans are now paying more than $3.00 per gallon for gasoline.  This is roughly 40 percent higher than the cost of gasoline last January when gas hovered near $2.15 per gallon. Higher gas prices are one reason why the economy is slowing down.  With so many additional dollars being spent at the pump, […]

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Which Leads Which Lower: Mortgage Rates Or The Fed Funds Rate?

January 16, 2008

It’s a point that’s always worth repeating: Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve do not control mortgage rates This is particularly relevant today as newspapers, television programs, and market pundits posit that the U.S. is in the midst of a recession. The latest evidence supporting that assertion is that Retail Sales grew at its slowest […]

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The Week In Review (January 14, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 14, 2008

Markets are welcoming the return of cold, hard data this week. Most of last week was spent making sense of Fed speakers, recessionary fears, and a takeover of the nation’s largest lender. This week, we’ll find out if the recent fears of recession are on target, or overblown. The data deluge starts Tuesday with the […]

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Holiday Spending APPEARS To Be Lower, But It Isn’t Really Lower

December 26, 2007

During the Holiday Season, economists watch consumer spending intently because it makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. When spending is stronger-than-expected, it can lead to inflation which pushes mortgage rates higher. So far this season, mortgage shoppers should be in good spirits.  Sales have fallen four weeks in a row and the outlook for a late-December rally […]

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Black Friday Trivia

November 23, 2007

Today is “Black Friday”, a day that many Americans get started on their Holiday Season shopping. Did you know? The earliest known reference to “Black Friday” is November 29, 1975.  The term was mentioned in two separate articles, both with Philadelphia timelines.  Therefore, the term Black Friday is believed to have originated in Philadelphia. Did […]

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The Week In Review (November 19, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 19, 2007

In a holiday-shortened week with no major economic data releases, expect worries about the credit markets and speculation about holiday shopping to take center stage. Last week was a mixed bag for the economy and mortgage markets responded in kind.  Rates were relatively unchanged. The news started with Wednesday’s Retail Sales report.  In showing a […]

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The Week In Review (November 13, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 13, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ shed 4.1% and 6.5%, respectively, last week. Normally, this would be good news for mortgage rates because investors tend to look for “safe havens” in bond issues, but instead, just treasuries benefited last week.  Mortgage bonds were left in the dust. Mortgage rates finished to the upside after […]

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The Week In Review (October 29, 2007) : What To Watch For

October 29, 2007

Strong earnings from Apple, American Express, Microsoft and Boeing helped to keep markets in balance last week after reports of weak business spending and poor housing data (again). The available data doesn’t seem to match corporate earnings reports and that is giving investors fits. Mortgage rates bounced around last week on the lack of conviction […]

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Retail Sales Data Gives Mortgage Markets Something To Chew On

October 15, 2007

Until this morning, mortgage markets had been somewhat dormant over the course of the week.  There was no new data for traders to chew, digest and/or spit out.  Mortgage rates sat flat because of it. Then, at 8:30 A.M. ET, the Commerce Department released Retail Sales data for September.  Mortgage rates are headed higher this morning on […]

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Making A Choice Of Mortgage Products Is Easier Today Than Most Days

October 11, 2007

In another sign that mortgage markets are a bit unpredictable lately, this morning’s mortgage rates are virtually identical for conforming fixed rate mortgages and conforming adjustable rate mortgages. This is an extremely uncommon market condition; usually, adjustable rate mortgages carry lower rates over their initial fixed rate period (i.e. 3 years, 5 years, 7 years) […]

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The Week In Review (September 10, 2007) : What To Watch For

September 10, 2007

Weak employment data pushed mortgage rates lower last week.  Against expectations of 110,000 new jobs created in August, last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a loss of 4,000 jobs. The story made headlines all over the country this weekend but its connection to mortgage rates is not always clear.  Here’s how the jobs report relates […]

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The Week In Review (August 13, 2007) : What To Watch For

August 13, 2007

After all the volatility and talk of a global crumble, all of the major U.S. stock indices posts gains last week.  It just goes to show you what a strange roller coaster ride we’re all on. Last week, the market bounced its way through: The Fed’s press release stating that inflation is still a concern […]

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When Everyone Spends A Little Less, We All Save A Little More

July 13, 2007

Weakness in Retail Sales data this morning is causing a knee-jerk reaction in trading circles, edging mortgage rates lower this morning. Against expectations of a flat reading, retailers reported a 0.9% decrease in sales volume in June.  This is the largest reported drop in two years. As we’ve discussed before, though, when looking at data […]

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Do 500 People Speak For The Whole Country?

July 12, 2007

On the week, mortgage rates are slightly improved as traders keep a watchful eye on tomorrow’s Retail Sales report. Largely, markets want to know how Americans are using their disposable income.  Are they buying big-ticket items like automobiles?  Are they buying luxury items?  Are they buying appliances and home goods? Retail Sales is released at […]

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What Role Do You Play In This Rising Mortgage Rate Environment?

June 13, 2007

The American Consumer keeps spending. This morning, the monthly Retail Sales report showed a larger-than-expected jump.  Even after stripping out elevated gas prices, the sales increase was more than double the expected amount. The economy surges ahead, fueled by everyday spending, and this does not bode well for the future of mortgage rates. The recent […]

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The Week In Review (June 11, 2007) : What To Watch For

June 11, 2007

After a semi-calm start, last week ended terribly for mortgage rate shoppers highlighted (lowlighted?) by Thursday’s mortgage bond market crash. The drubbing Thursday was the worst day for the bond market in three years and is one of the reasons why the conforming and jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage is up 0.625% since late-April. Conforming and […]

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The Week In Review (May 14, 2007) : What To Watch For

May 14, 2007

Last week in the mortgage markets was thick with hype and thin with action. Whenever the Fed meets, there is potential for wild swings in mortgage rates.  And, although the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, it’s views on inflation and the economy carry tremendous weight with traders, with economists, with banks, and with governments across […]

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