recession

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : April 7, 2008

April 7, 2008

Mortgage rates edged lower last week, buoyed by a weak employment report for March. After shedding 80,000 jobs last month, the number of working Americans is lower by 232,000 so far this year. Many pundits are claiming these figures are proof of a U.S. economic recession but it’s important to keep the data in perspective. […]

Read the full article →

How Mortgage Rates Benefit From 3 Months Of Worsening Employment Data

April 4, 2008

For the third month in a row, the economy shed jobs, suggesting that the U.S. is in a recession. March’s monthly loss of 80,000 jobs is the largest since March 2003 and follows January and February’s losses of 76,000 each. The weak data is edging mortgage rates lower as we head into the weekend. The […]

Read the full article →

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : March 31, 2008

March 31, 2008

Mortgage rates were up last week on weak housing data and a growing nervousness about mortgage bond quality. Rates would have been up more if not for a tame inflation reading Friday. The Personal Consumption Expenditures report fell Friday to 2.0% year-over-year, putting it back within the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone of 1-2 percent. PCE […]

Read the full article →

Expect A Fed Funds Rate Cut This Afternoon

March 18, 2008

The Federal Open Market Committee meets today and will issue a press release in addition to cutting the Fed Funds Rate at 2:15 P.M. ET. The verbiage of the press release will be as widely watched as the rate cut itself because markets are curious about how far the Federal Reserve will go to lessen […]

Read the full article →

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : March 17, 2008

March 17, 2008

Mortgage rates fell last week on growing evidence of a recession, but far fewer Americans were eligible to take advantage. Mortgage lenders continue to reduce product menus and that is leaving homeowners with fewer mortgage financing options than before. As an added hurdle, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently added “risk-based” fees on all conforming […]

Read the full article →

How Gas Prices Are Impacting Mortgage Rates

March 11, 2008

Gasoline prices reached an all-time, inflation-adjusted high yesterday, averaging $3.23 per gallon nationwide. According to GasBuddy.com, this represents a 25% increase in the last 12 months. Higher gas prices are leaving Americans with fewer discretionary dollars to spend and that is playing a role in the U.S. economy’s slowdown.  It’s one reason why mortgage rates have […]

Read the full article →

Recession or Inflation? Even Fed Members Don’t Know For Sure.

March 5, 2008

With Friday’s jobs report looming, mortgage markets are especially skittish about whether the economy is in a recession, or facing inflation. Four Fed speakers Tuesday did little to quell the debate: 9:00 A.M.: Fed Chairman Bernanke stayed on message that foreclosures and falling home values are dragging down the economy. 10:00 A.M.: Fed Vice Chairman […]

Read the full article →

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : March 3, 2008

March 3, 2008

Mortgage rates edged lower last week but it was another wild ride.  Market players continue to deal with competing economic forecasts. When the economy shows signs of brightness — like it did Monday and Tuesday — mortgage rates tend to rise. This is because markets are currently equating growth with inflation and inflation pressures mortgage […]

Read the full article →

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : February 25, 2008

February 25, 2008

It’s a big week for mortgage markets (again) and that should cause rates to fluctuate wildly (again). The volatility we’ve seen since December has not been for the faint of heart.  Even this past Friday, as mortgage rates were poised to end the week lower, a late-afternoon stock market rally reversed it. In the last […]

Read the full article →

How Economic Stimulus Impacts Home Financing

February 13, 2008

President Bush is expected to sign the economic stimulus package today. The package includes tax rebates and incentives for business and its purpose is to jumpstart a stalling U.S. economy. If the package is deemed “effective” by Wall Street investors, we should expect the stock market to rally on the prospects of business growth. The […]

Read the full article →

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : February 11, 2008

February 11, 2008

Mortgage markets are conflicted about the U.S. economy and the confusion is impacting home buyers. If you’ve recently tried to lock a mortgage rate, you’ve probably experienced it personally. On one hand, reports of plunging sales suggest that the economy is slowing more quickly than expected. This is recessionary and tends to be good for […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (January 28, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 28, 2008

Mortgage rates change from day-to-day, but last week’s volatility was a record-breaker. After drooping through Tuesday and then skyrocketing Wednesday and Thursday, mortgage rates retreated slightly on Friday. By weeks’ end, rates were at their same levels from mid-December. This is in contrast to Tuesday, just after the Fed’s rate cut and before the stock […]

Read the full article →

Which Leads Which Lower: Mortgage Rates Or The Fed Funds Rate?

January 16, 2008

It’s a point that’s always worth repeating: Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve do not control mortgage rates This is particularly relevant today as newspapers, television programs, and market pundits posit that the U.S. is in the midst of a recession. The latest evidence supporting that assertion is that Retail Sales grew at its slowest […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (January 14, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 14, 2008

Markets are welcoming the return of cold, hard data this week. Most of last week was spent making sense of Fed speakers, recessionary fears, and a takeover of the nation’s largest lender. This week, we’ll find out if the recent fears of recession are on target, or overblown. The data deluge starts Tuesday with the […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (January 07, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 7, 2008

Stock markets tanked last week behind high oil prices and weak employment data. Amid a sell-off that led to a 4.5% decline in the S&P 500, investors sought safety in the bond markets. As a result, mortgage bonds improved last week, driving some mortgage rates to their lowest levels in two years. This week, with […]

Read the full article →

Why It’s Not So Bad That Unemployment Reached Its Highest Rate Since November 2005

January 4, 2008

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases key data about the American workforce. The report is officially called “Non-Farm Payrolls” but most people refer to it as the “jobs report”. The jobs report’s influence on markets is palpable for two major reasons: Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the […]

Read the full article →

$100 Oil Could Mean More Than High Gas Prices For Americans

January 3, 2008

The price of oil briefly touched $100 per barrel yesterday, just short of the all-time inflation-adjusted high of $102.81 in April 1980. According to economic forecasting firm Global Insight, each $10-per-barrel increase in oil prices: Increases gas prices by 19 per gallon Cuts consumer spending by one-third of a percent Reduces employment by 100,000 Adds […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (December 24, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 24, 2007

Mortgage rates moved away from the best levels of the year last week with force, and this week could resemble last. Markets have been grappling with conflicting signals about the U.S. economy. On one hand, there is evidence of inflation in the form of higher cost of living.  On the other hand, there is evidence […]

Read the full article →

Why Recession Is Not A Guarantee In 2008

December 14, 2007

In its biggest month-over-month jump since 1973, the Producer Price Index rose 3.2 percent in November. PPI is like a “cost of living” measurement for consumer, except that it applies to business. PPI measures how expensive it is to produce goods on a day-to-day basis. PPI spiking in November is an important development for all […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (December 3, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 3, 2007

If you enjoy roller coaster rides, last week’s mortgage markets were a delight.  Up and down mortgage rates went, trying to find a balance between inflation and recession (or maybe neither). A major cue for markets last week came from a high-ranking Fed official who raised expectations for future cuts to the Fed Funds Rate.  […]

Read the full article →

← Previous Entries

Next Entries →