News

What Last Night’s Oil Price Spike Reveals About Market Nerves

March 28, 2007

Oil prices are down since last year overall, mostly because the political risk has been removed from pricing. Last night, though, a rumored Iranian attack on a U.S. ship in the Persian Gulf showed how quickly markets can flip if oil supply is threatened. Immediately, the political risk of tightened oil supply found its way […]

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The Headlines On Housing Aren’t Telling The Whole Story

March 23, 2007

As a consumer, it’s very easy to be misled by newspaper headlines.  Today provides a great example. “Sales of Existing Homes Up 3.9% For The Biggest Monthly Gains In Three Years” What was not mentioned in the headline was that total inventory rose by 5.9%, adding more supply than for which there is demand. More […]

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The Week In Review (March 19, 2007) : What To Watch For

March 19, 2007

Sub-prime mortgage news dominated the headlines this past week as the Chicken Littles were out in full force.  Perhaps the fears of a credit crunch are overblown, but then again, perhaps there’s reason to worry. Like everything else in the world of economics, it all comes down to expectations. Markets makes predictions about the future […]

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The Cost of Living Index Increases; Mortgage Rates Increase, Too.

March 16, 2007

The Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected this morning, registering a 0.371% increase.  Excluding volatile gas and food prices, CPI grew by 0.241%.  The latter figure is called “Core CPI”. CPI is sometimes referred to as the “Cost of Living Index” because it measures how consumers are impacting by changing prices of energy, […]

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Conforming ARMs Are Going Delinquent More Rapidly Than Sub-Prime ARMs

March 14, 2007

The Mortgage Bankers Association released a report yesterday detailing how mortgage-holding homeowners are meeting their obligations. The statistics were a major factor in the Wall Street sell-off yesterday as investors increasingly grow nervous that sub-prime mortgage defaults will spill over into other credit markets and take the economy with it. The report stated that fourth […]

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More Americans Are Working And Are Being Paid More To Work

March 9, 2007

Mortgage rates are moving higher this morning after the 8:30 EST release of February’s jobs report. The 97,000 new jobs created was in-line with the 95,000 expectation, but January’s numbers were revised higher by 35,000 to 146,000. In addition, the report showed a slight drop in unemployment and an increase in average hourly earnings. If […]

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Two Extra Days To File Taxes Means Two Extra Days To Find Deductions

March 6, 2007

Many of us are knee-deep in paperwork from our banks, our advisors and lenders as we prepare for the April 17, 2007 tax deadline. Yes, I said April 17, 2007. April 15 is a Sunday and April 16 is Emancipation Day, a legal holiday in the District of Columbia.  So, this year, we all have […]

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The Week In Review (March 5, 2007) : What To Watch For

March 5, 2007

Two weeks ago, the tone on Wall Street was overwhelmingly positive and the glass was half-full.  Last week, however, that all changed. The week began with former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s remarking that a 2007 recession may be looming, and it ended with Dow posting its worst one week loss in more than four years. […]

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More “Safe Haven” Buying Drops Mortgage Rates

February 27, 2007

The Flight-to-Quality continues in the bond markets. Iran said today that the suspension of its uranium enrichment program “will never happen”, fueling speculation that an international stand-off is pending.  The United States has sent additional aircraft carriers to the Gulf in response. Normally, this action is enough to frighten markets into bonds by itself, but […]

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CPI Is Higher And Contained In Comfort Range

February 21, 2007

Markets did not like today’s Consumer Price Index figures which came in higher than expected.  However, the downbeat mood this morning is not enough to reverse the recent downward trend in mortgage rates. The chart at right shows CPI over the past two years and the band collars the Fed’s articulated “comfort zone” for inflation. […]

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North Korea Stops Making Plutonium, But Will Markets Believe Them?

February 13, 2007

North Korea agreed to shutter its main source of plutonium today in exchange for energy and food considerations after months of negotiations with the United States and other countries.  The agreement did not specifically address the disarmament of existing nuclear weapons. News like this is a mixed bag for mortgage rate shoppers based on how […]

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The Week In Review (February 12, 2007) : What To Watch For

February 12, 2007

Despite the dearth of economic news last week, mortgage rates staged somewhat of a rally.  By the time the week ended. mortgage rates had retreated by half of the prior week’s major run-up.  The week was not without fireworks, however.  In prepared remarks, Dallas Fed President Fisher dropped a hint about future Fed rate hikes […]

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The Fed Says: Housing Shows Signs of Stabilization

February 1, 2007

The FOMC left the Fed Funds Rate at 5.250% yesterday, signaling controlled growth in the months ahead.  Most notable was the press release’s inclusion of “tentative signs of stabilization” with respect to the housing market and the removal of references to high energy prices. Because the FFR did not change, the FFR-derived Prime Rate also […]

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The Market Sees What It Wants To See

January 24, 2007

With the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet for two days beginning January 30, the Fed has entered “blackout mode” and no Fed speakers are slated for the next week.  Combine Fed Silence with lack of economic data, and market are moving on emotion and gut feel. That’s bad news for rate shoppers because […]

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The Week In Review (January 15, 2007) : What To Watch For

January 15, 2007

In a week practically devoid of economic news, mortgage rates trended higher last week amid falling oil prices and surprise strength in Holiday Season spending. Investors are jittery about the U.S. economy.  Since it stopped raising the Fed Funds Rate this past summer, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly told markets that it is expecting an […]

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How Will Oil’s Plunging Prices Impact Mortgage Rates

January 9, 2007

This summer, oil crossed the $77 threshold per barrel and since then, it has been on a steady decline. Today, it crossed $58 per barrel. Lower prices for oil should reduce heating bills and gas pump receipts for Americans this winter. High oil prices are a stimulus for inflation so on the surface this would […]

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Once Bitten, Twice Shy: ADP Says Jobs Were Lost in December

January 4, 2007

This summer, economists were predicting that 175,000 new jobs were created in June and then payroll processor ADP shared their own estimate of 368,000 with the markets. In a panic, mortgage rates moved higher because – well, what if ADP was right?!? The actual figure turned out to be 121,000. That major miss jolted the […]

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Vacation Days Are Good – Unless You’re The One Left Behind

December 29, 2006

As we head into the last day of trading in 2006, there are a lot of market players that have already left for the long weekend. That’s good for them, but rough for everyone else left behind. With so many traders on vacation this week, there are fewer buyers and fewer sellers at any given […]

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New Homes Sales Is Less Important Than New Homes Closed

December 28, 2006

Yesterday’s New Home Sales report revealed the following signs of immense strength in the housing sector and mortgage rates are moving higher on the news. Sales registered 1.047 million versus the expectation of 1.015 million — a difference of 3.15%. Sales were revised higher by 46,000 over the past three months. Inventory levels dropped to […]

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