mortgage bonds

The Week In Review (December 17, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 17, 2007

Last week proved once again: The Fed does not control mortgage rates. On Tuesday, after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250%, mortgage rates began an ascent that carried all the way through Friday’s close. As a result, mortgage rates are dramatically higher today than just one week ago. Other […]

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The Week In Review (December 10, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 10, 2007

Among lingering doubts about housing and credit markets, and a general uncertainty about the U.S. economy, the mortgage bond market tanked towards the latter part of last week. As investors moved away from mortgage bonds, mortgage rates forcefully bounced off their two-year lows. A major factor behind last week’s run-up in rates is the market […]

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The Week In Review (December 3, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 3, 2007

If you enjoy roller coaster rides, last week’s mortgage markets were a delight.  Up and down mortgage rates went, trying to find a balance between inflation and recession (or maybe neither). A major cue for markets last week came from a high-ranking Fed official who raised expectations for future cuts to the Fed Funds Rate.  […]

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On Random Rate Rallies And Thin Trading

November 20, 2007

Mortgage bonds staged a late-day rally yesterday, exaggerated by the holiday-shortened week and because trader participation is light. (We’ll revisit this theme several times between now and the New Year so don’t get tired of it.) When mortgage bonds rally, it means that demand for them is strong and that pushes mortgage rates down. Unfortunately for […]

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The Week In Review (November 19, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 19, 2007

In a holiday-shortened week with no major economic data releases, expect worries about the credit markets and speculation about holiday shopping to take center stage. Last week was a mixed bag for the economy and mortgage markets responded in kind.  Rates were relatively unchanged. The news started with Wednesday’s Retail Sales report.  In showing a […]

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The Week In Review (November 13, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 13, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ shed 4.1% and 6.5%, respectively, last week. Normally, this would be good news for mortgage rates because investors tend to look for “safe havens” in bond issues, but instead, just treasuries benefited last week.  Mortgage bonds were left in the dust. Mortgage rates finished to the upside after […]

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The Simple Math Of How Mortgage Rates Are Born

November 9, 2007

We talk a lot about how mortgage bonds are the driving force behind mortgage rates but we never get into the math of it.  So, to help our understanding of the subject, let’s delve a little deeper. Here’s the (very simplified) math behind it: If you pay $100 today for a $6 annual interest payment […]

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Is A Fed Funds Rate Cut Good News Or Bad News? It Depends On Your Perspective.

October 26, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to lower the Fed Funds Rate next week. For holders of credit cards and home equity lines of credit, this is good news. Both of these financial products feature interest rates tied to Prime Rate. Prime Rate is tied to the Fed Funds Rate. When the Fed […]

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How Japan And China Can Impact The Mortgage Rate On Your Home

October 17, 2007

Mortgage rates are determined by the prices of mortgage bonds; this, we’ve covered before.  As bonds prices go up, bond rates come down. And the price of a mortgage bond is a matter of Supply and Demand. The greater the demand for a bond, the higher its price.  High demand for bonds is one reason […]

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Retail Sales Data Gives Mortgage Markets Something To Chew On

October 15, 2007

Until this morning, mortgage markets had been somewhat dormant over the course of the week.  There was no new data for traders to chew, digest and/or spit out.  Mortgage rates sat flat because of it. Then, at 8:30 A.M. ET, the Commerce Department released Retail Sales data for September.  Mortgage rates are headed higher this morning on […]

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Want More Proof That The Fed Doesn’t Control Mortgage Rates?

September 21, 2007

For more proof that the Fed does not control mortgage rates, consider this: In the immediate aftermath of the Fed’s decision to lower the Fed Funds Rate by 0.50%, mortgage rates improved by about 0.125% on average. But, in the two days since, mortgage rates have not only given back those gains, but have approached […]

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The Week In Review (September 17, 2007) : What To Watch For

September 17, 2007

The volatile path of mortgage rates last week followed the changing expectations for Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The FOMC sets the Fed Funds Rate, a benchmark interest rate upon which Prime Rate is based. According to Federal Funds Rate futures, there is a 94 percent chance that the Fed will lower the FFR […]

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Why Mortgage Rates Fell BEFORE The Fed Meeting September 18

September 12, 2007

Mortgage rates “come from” one place only: the prices of mortgage bonds as determined by investors. The higher the price, the lower the corresponding return, or rate. Bonds — like stocks — are traded as securities.  An investor may buy Microsoft stock if he thought the company’s future looked bright, and he may buy mortgage […]

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The Week In Review (September 10, 2007) : What To Watch For

September 10, 2007

Weak employment data pushed mortgage rates lower last week.  Against expectations of 110,000 new jobs created in August, last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a loss of 4,000 jobs. The story made headlines all over the country this weekend but its connection to mortgage rates is not always clear.  Here’s how the jobs report relates […]

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An Appetite For Jumbo Loans Returns

September 5, 2007

Yesterday was a rather drab day in mortgage circles — not much happened and mortgage rates idled.  The bigger story was how liquidity appears to be slowly returning to some areas of the beaten-down mortgage market. Specifically, liquidity is returning to prime, fixed-rate, full documentation jumbo loans and pricing appears to be improving (slightly). The […]

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How Credit Cards May Be Replacing Home Equity As A Funding Source

August 29, 2007

As mortgage guidelines loosened between 2002 and 2006, homeowners often used their home equity to retire credit card and other consumer debt.  They did this by increasing the size of the mortgage and taking “cash out” from their home. As you’d expect, this type of mortgage transaction is called a “cash out” refinance. Well, now […]

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Like The Fed Funds Rate, The Fed’s Discount Rate Does Not Control Mortgage Rates

August 21, 2007

Friday, the Federal Reserve lowered its Discount Rate by 0.50% in an effort to preserve liquidity among our nation’s banks. This has nothing to do with mortgage rates that people like you and I get for our homes.  Well, not directly at least. The Discount Rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from the […]

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The Week In Review (August 20, 2007) : What To Watch For

August 20, 2007

Again last week, financiers failed to answer the major question dogging Wall Street: What is the “right” risk model to use for mortgage lending?  The models of the past are being proven to have been wrong. So, why do risk models matter? Because the basic tenet of lending states that the riskier the loan, the […]

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Is Your Loan Officer Incorrectly Reading In Which Direction Mortgage Bonds Are Moving?

August 16, 2007

As we discuss over and over again, mortgage interest rates are determined by the price of mortgage bonds.  Nothing else, and nothing more.  The challenge in that truth is that mortgage bond pricing is not very accessible to the general public. This includes the press. As a result, the media tends to use a government […]

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What’s The True Risk In Mortgage Lending? It’s Anyone’s Guess Right Now.

August 10, 2007

Any security — stock, bond, or otherwise — has a specific risk associated with it.  Based on that risk, an investor decides whether or not the price is worth paying.  If the security is a “good value”, an investor will buy it.  If not, the investor will pass. Until recently, mortgage bonds were considered a […]

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