jobs

The Week In Review (November 05, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 4, 2007

As we saw last week, the economy is simultaneously hot and cold.  This makes for a strange ride on Wall Street because stocks and bonds tend to move on emotion rather than on fact. This “mob mentality” is one reason why mortgage rates have bounced up and down so much lately. For example, we saw […]

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The Week In Review (October 29, 2007) : What To Watch For

October 29, 2007

Strong earnings from Apple, American Express, Microsoft and Boeing helped to keep markets in balance last week after reports of weak business spending and poor housing data (again). The available data doesn’t seem to match corporate earnings reports and that is giving investors fits. Mortgage rates bounced around last week on the lack of conviction […]

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How Today’s Employment Data Is Hurting Mortgage Rates

October 5, 2007

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its employment report for the United States. Last month, the jobs report showed that the economy actually lost jobs for the first time since 2003.  The total loss of jobs equaled 4,000 and contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the […]

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The Week In Review (September 10, 2007) : What To Watch For

September 10, 2007

Weak employment data pushed mortgage rates lower last week.  Against expectations of 110,000 new jobs created in August, last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a loss of 4,000 jobs. The story made headlines all over the country this weekend but its connection to mortgage rates is not always clear.  Here’s how the jobs report relates […]

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How Today’s Jobs Report Impacts Mortgage Rates

September 7, 2007

This morning, the government reported that the U.S. economy lost 4,000 jobs in August.  Led by losses in manufacturing and in construction, this is the first time since 2003 that the economy has failed to add jobs in any given month. Markets had been expecting a job gain of roughly 110,000, but many players on […]

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The Week In Review (September 4, 2007) : What To Watch For

September 4, 2007

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke took the pulpit Friday in Jackson Hole but his remarks made little impact on mortgage bond trading. The Fed is aware of economic issues related to housing and mortgage debt, Bernanke said. He implied that the Fed wants more evidence that inflation has slowed before taking more drastic measures to help […]

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How Revisions To Previously-Released Data Are Pushing Mortgage Rates Higher Today

July 6, 2007

On a stronger-than-expected jobs report and upward revisions to April and May’s figures, mortgage rates are moving higher this morning. Against an expectation of 120,000, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported that 132,000 new jobs were created in June.  This not a huge deal in and of itself. It’s the revisions that are causing […]

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Three Reasons Why Mortgage Rates Are Higher This Morning

July 5, 2007

Mortgage markets are making like last night’s fireworks, exploding in the sky with a bang. There are three main factors pushing rates higher today: Bank of England raised their interest rates by 0.25% and foreshadowed future increases European Central Bank Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet said that inflation is “likely to rise again significantly towards the end […]

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The Week In Review (July 2, 2007) : What To Watch For

July 2, 2007

As expected, Ben Bernanke & Co. left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 5.250% last week but that didn’t stop markets from improving slightly overall. Markets were buoyed by a low reading on last Friday’s PCE index, the Fed’s favored inflation measure. Low inflation readings are good for mortgage rates so it’s no surprise that […]

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The Week In Review (June 18, 2007) : What To Watch For

June 18, 2007

After a tame Consumer Price Index report Friday, mortgage bonds staged a brief rally and rates retreated slightly. Earlier in the week, mortgage rates were at their highest point in almost a year. Unfortunately for rate shoppers, mortgage investors are behaving like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde right now.  One moment, they hate the outlook […]

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The Week In Review (May 29, 2007) : What To Watch For

May 29, 2007

Mortgage rates continued their climb higher last week as markets dealt with contradictory data about the health of the housing and the economy. New Home Sales registered its biggest gain in 14 years while Existing Home Sales reached a 4-year low; and purchases of “big-ticket” items such as computers, appliances and furniture unexpectedly jumped while […]

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Hot Housing Starts Figure May Push Mortgage Rates Higher

May 16, 2007

Each month, the Commerce Department releases a statistic titled “Housing Starts” that measures residential construction activity. This morning, the Commerce Department released April’s Housing Starts data (PDF) and the headline data reflected a 2.5% (±9.3%) increase in new construction. Markets had anticipated a 0.8% decrease.  This coincided with a decrease in available homes, as shown […]

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How The ADP Jobs Report Impacts Mortgage Rates

May 3, 2007

If yesterday’s ADP Employment Report is any indication, tomorrow’s jobs report may fall short of the 100,000 new job expectation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ADP reported 64,000 new jobs were created in April. The ADP report has never been in lock-step with the “official” report from BLS, including this well-publicized event in June […]

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Jobs Report Is The 800 Pound Gorilla In The Room

May 1, 2007

There’s a palpable uneasiness in mortgage markets right now and Friday’s payroll report looms large. Remember: it’s not the actual data that matters — it’s how close the data is to its expected levels. All week, traders have been jockeying for position based on a projected 100,000 new jobs created and if the number is […]

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The Week In Review (April 30, 2007) : What To Watch For

April 30, 2007

Last week, a ranking Fed official delivered a “wait-and-see” speech on inflation and that roiled the mortgage markets plenty. After sitting in a tight range for Monday through Wednesday, rates exploded higher Thursday as markets abruptly changed their expectations of growth for the rest of 2007. Despite weak housing numbers, employment and consumer spending figures […]

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Whichever Way The Winds Blows

April 18, 2007

Up and down.  Up and down.  Up and down. It’s been a veritable roller coaster over the past two weeks for mortgage rates, mostly because traders can’t find the answer to the most important question facing mortgage markets: Are in the midst of inflation, or not? Everytime we see strong data in one sector of […]

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The Week In Review (April 9, 2007) : What To Watch For

April 9, 2007

On strength in jobs and hiring, mortgage rates finished last week at their highest levels in six weeks. It was a slow week last week until Friday when — with the stock market closed for Good Friday and with most bond traders on early vacation — the Non-Farms Payroll report handily beat expectations. This created […]

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Good Friday + Jobs Report Data = Major Mortgage Rates Movement

April 6, 2007

Today’s mortgage rates are getting slammed on the heels of the Non-Farm Payrolls report.  Instead of hitting the consensus estimate figure of 135,000 jobs, the report showed a very large 180,000 new jobs created in March. Unemployment levels dropped to 4.4% pointing to underlying strength in the economy. Mortgage bonds are selling off right now […]

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It’s A Waiting Game Until Thursday Afternoon

April 3, 2007

There is little on the domestic front to move markets today as traders wait for Friday’s jobs report. The jobs data will take on more significance this month than in recent months because of Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress last week. The Fed Chief spoke more strongly about inflation that we’ve heard from him in […]

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The Week In Review (April 2, 2007) : What To Watch For

April 2, 2007

Last week, Ben Bernanke’s testimony before Congress served as a stark wake-up call that inflation is not going away so easily. Later in the week, hard data backed that up.  PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, beat expectations and pushed the year-over-year increase to 2.4%. The Fed hopes that PCE will be 2.0% by 2008 […]

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