inflation

Why It’s Not So Bad That Unemployment Reached Its Highest Rate Since November 2005

January 4, 2008

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases key data about the American workforce. The report is officially called “Non-Farm Payrolls” but most people refer to it as the “jobs report”. The jobs report’s influence on markets is palpable for two major reasons: Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the […]

Read the full article →

$100 Oil Could Mean More Than High Gas Prices For Americans

January 3, 2008

The price of oil briefly touched $100 per barrel yesterday, just short of the all-time inflation-adjusted high of $102.81 in April 1980. According to economic forecasting firm Global Insight, each $10-per-barrel increase in oil prices: Increases gas prices by 19 per gallon Cuts consumer spending by one-third of a percent Reduces employment by 100,000 Adds […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (January 2, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 2, 2008

It’s a short, but heavy, week for mortgage markets.  Investors are returning to the fray after a few lighter-than-normal weeks and their return should bring some stability to mortgage rates. Last week, mortgage bond prices rose which, in turn, moved mortgage rates down. The main reason for last week’s rate improvement was the assassination of […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (January 2, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 2, 2008

It’s a short, but heavy, week for mortgage markets.  Investors are returning to the fray after a few lighter-than-normal weeks and their return should bring some stability to mortgage rates. Last week, mortgage bond prices rose which, in turn, moved mortgage rates down. The main reason for last week’s rate improvement was the assassination of […]

Read the full article →

Holiday Spending APPEARS To Be Lower, But It Isn’t Really Lower

December 26, 2007

During the Holiday Season, economists watch consumer spending intently because it makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. When spending is stronger-than-expected, it can lead to inflation which pushes mortgage rates higher. So far this season, mortgage shoppers should be in good spirits.  Sales have fallen four weeks in a row and the outlook for a late-December rally […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (December 24, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 24, 2007

Mortgage rates moved away from the best levels of the year last week with force, and this week could resemble last. Markets have been grappling with conflicting signals about the U.S. economy. On one hand, there is evidence of inflation in the form of higher cost of living.  On the other hand, there is evidence […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (December 17, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 17, 2007

Last week proved once again: The Fed does not control mortgage rates. On Tuesday, after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250%, mortgage rates began an ascent that carried all the way through Friday’s close. As a result, mortgage rates are dramatically higher today than just one week ago. Other […]

Read the full article →

Why Recession Is Not A Guarantee In 2008

December 14, 2007

In its biggest month-over-month jump since 1973, the Producer Price Index rose 3.2 percent in November. PPI is like a “cost of living” measurement for consumer, except that it applies to business. PPI measures how expensive it is to produce goods on a day-to-day basis. PPI spiking in November is an important development for all […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (December 10, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 10, 2007

Among lingering doubts about housing and credit markets, and a general uncertainty about the U.S. economy, the mortgage bond market tanked towards the latter part of last week. As investors moved away from mortgage bonds, mortgage rates forcefully bounced off their two-year lows. A major factor behind last week’s run-up in rates is the market […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (December 3, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 3, 2007

If you enjoy roller coaster rides, last week’s mortgage markets were a delight.  Up and down mortgage rates went, trying to find a balance between inflation and recession (or maybe neither). A major cue for markets last week came from a high-ranking Fed official who raised expectations for future cuts to the Fed Funds Rate.  […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (November 26, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 26, 2007

In a holiday-shortened trading week, mortgage rates finished the week slightly improved. But, because many traders had left early for Thanksgiving, matching buyers and sellers at any given price proved to be an exercise.  Mortgage rates bounced wildly as a result. Between now and the New Year, expect the same volatility.  Fewer market players means […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (November 19, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 19, 2007

In a holiday-shortened week with no major economic data releases, expect worries about the credit markets and speculation about holiday shopping to take center stage. Last week was a mixed bag for the economy and mortgage markets responded in kind.  Rates were relatively unchanged. The news started with Wednesday’s Retail Sales report.  In showing a […]

Read the full article →

The Cost Of Living Includes The Cost Of Gas And Food (And May Get More Expensive Through The Winter)

November 16, 2007

October’s Consumer Price Index was released Thursday and showed a 3.5 percent increase in the cost of living since October 2006. The report also showed a core inflation rate of 2.2 percent. The “core CPI” is a smaller part of the overall CPI. The math is the same, but it specifically excludes cost changes in […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (November 13, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 13, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ shed 4.1% and 6.5%, respectively, last week. Normally, this would be good news for mortgage rates because investors tend to look for “safe havens” in bond issues, but instead, just treasuries benefited last week.  Mortgage bonds were left in the dust. Mortgage rates finished to the upside after […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (November 05, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 4, 2007

As we saw last week, the economy is simultaneously hot and cold.  This makes for a strange ride on Wall Street because stocks and bonds tend to move on emotion rather than on fact. This “mob mentality” is one reason why mortgage rates have bounced up and down so much lately. For example, we saw […]

Read the full article →

What Is The Fed Funds Rate?

October 31, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its two-day meeting this afternoon and is widely expected to lower the Fed Funds Rate.  This does not mean that mortgage rates are being lowered, too. The definition of Fed Funds Rate from the Federal Reserve: The federal funds rate is the rate charged by one depository institution […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (October 29, 2007) : What To Watch For

October 29, 2007

Strong earnings from Apple, American Express, Microsoft and Boeing helped to keep markets in balance last week after reports of weak business spending and poor housing data (again). The available data doesn’t seem to match corporate earnings reports and that is giving investors fits. Mortgage rates bounced around last week on the lack of conviction […]

Read the full article →

How The Stock Market Is Directing Traffic For Mortgage Rates

October 23, 2007

As we talked about yesterday, the stock market appears to be directing traffic for the bond market. Monday was a flat day for stocks, and it was a flat day for bonds, too.  Mortgage rates idled. Tuesday, with no economic data hitting the wires, market participants will be looking for direction elsewhere. Some likely candidates […]

Read the full article →

Retail Sales Data Gives Mortgage Markets Something To Chew On

October 15, 2007

Until this morning, mortgage markets had been somewhat dormant over the course of the week.  There was no new data for traders to chew, digest and/or spit out.  Mortgage rates sat flat because of it. Then, at 8:30 A.M. ET, the Commerce Department released Retail Sales data for September.  Mortgage rates are headed higher this morning on […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (September 17, 2007) : What To Watch For

September 17, 2007

The volatile path of mortgage rates last week followed the changing expectations for Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The FOMC sets the Fed Funds Rate, a benchmark interest rate upon which Prime Rate is based. According to Federal Funds Rate futures, there is a 94 percent chance that the Fed will lower the FFR […]

Read the full article →

← Previous Entries

Next Entries →