fed funds rate

Which Way Will They Go? Inflation Up, Growth Down, Or Both?

June 28, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a two-day meeting today and so this is a good time to remind yourself: The Fed does not control mortgage rates. Rather, the Fed sets the Federal Funds Rate. And the FFR is, in turn, used to determine Prime Rate. Prime Rate, in turn, is used to determine […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (June 25, 2007) : What To Watch For

June 25, 2007

For the first week in a long while, mortgage rates ended the week better than how they started. As we talked about last week, when there are no major data releases, the markets tend to move on momentum and psychology.  That’s precisely what pushed mortgage rates lower over the past five days. This week, though, […]

Read the full article →

How Expectations For The Future Impact Mortgage Rates Today

June 1, 2007

Mortgage rates will not get a helping hand from the bevy of data released this morning. As markets anticipated, headline data supports the notion that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds Rate from its current 5.250% level before it lowering it. This is completely opposite from what we were seeing just two months ago. […]

Read the full article →

Federal Reserve: Inflation Remains “Uncomfortably High”

May 31, 2007

Tomorrow, the fireworks begin.  Or, continue, depending on your point of view. After a span of several weeks in which mortgage rates have steadily increased, markets are gearing up for a heavy day of data that could confirm the worst fears of investors everywhere: the U.S. economy is not slowing down. The Fed’s May meeting […]

Read the full article →

Today Is FOMC Day : What Will They Do/Say?

May 9, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee meets today and markets will be hanging on their every word. There is virtually no chance that the Fed will change the Fed Funds Rate from its current 5.250% level, so its the Fed’s press release that will get all of the attention. We’ll disect the message in tomorrow’s blog […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (May 7, 2007) : What To Watch For

May 7, 2007

Data painted a dismal picture for the economy last week including tempering inflation readings, slowing job growth, depressed home sale data, and ever-higher gasoline prices.  This gave markets hope that the Fed may start to ease up on the Fed Funds Rate. But, while the stock market rallied on the news, the bond market continued […]

Read the full article →

Why “Prime Rate” Is A Name And Not A Number

May 2, 2007

Pop Quiz: Which interest rate is lower?  8.25% or Prime Rate? If you answered anything other than “they are the same”, then you can understand first-hand why banks refer to Prime Rate by name instead of by number. It’s a neat little piece of sales psychology that keeps people from recognizing their true cost of […]

Read the full article →

What’s All That Yellen About?

April 27, 2007

So much for market calm. The mortgage market tanked yesterday when, in response to conflicting data about growth and inflation, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said “watchful waiting” is the Fed’s likely next step. This surprised markets because most expect the Fed to lower the Fed Funds Rate within the next few months. The […]

Read the full article →

With The Next Fed Meeting 13 Days Away, Markets Will Listen For Clues

April 26, 2007

Mortgage rates have been fairly lazy this week, reaching a near flatline.  Even the much-talked about housing data didn’t do much to unperch markets from their current levels. This afternoon, Fed officials Yellen, Fisher, and Mishkin each speak to the public in separate appearances.  If data can’t move mortgage rates, perhaps opinion can. Of the group, […]

Read the full article →

Three Fed Speakers On Tap For Today

April 10, 2007

With three members of the Federal Reserve scheduled to speak today, don’t be surprised if mortgage rates show some brief volatility. Despite weakness in housing, the economy has shown resiliency and continues to push forward.  Markets had widely expected a slowdown, but are now having to change course — rapidly.  T his is why mortgage […]

Read the full article →

It’s A Waiting Game Until Thursday Afternoon

April 3, 2007

There is little on the domestic front to move markets today as traders wait for Friday’s jobs report. The jobs data will take on more significance this month than in recent months because of Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress last week. The Fed Chief spoke more strongly about inflation that we’ve heard from him in […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (April 2, 2007) : What To Watch For

April 2, 2007

Last week, Ben Bernanke’s testimony before Congress served as a stark wake-up call that inflation is not going away so easily. Later in the week, hard data backed that up.  PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, beat expectations and pushed the year-over-year increase to 2.4%. The Fed hopes that PCE will be 2.0% by 2008 […]

Read the full article →

Bernanke Says Inflation Is “Somewhat Elevated”

March 29, 2007

Ben Bernanke delivered a prepared speech to the congressional Joint Economic Committee Wednesday in which he stated that inflation is “somewhat elevated”, but that it’s no reason to expect a Fed Funds Rate hike anytime soon. Some of Chairman Bernanke’s more salient points: Economic growth has slowed because of a “substantial correction” in the housing market […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (March 26, 2007) : What To Watch For

March 26, 2007

The Fed held the Fed Funds Rate at 5.250% last week and included verbiage in its Press Release that the FFR may have to come down before it goes up again.  This gave investors reason to cheer and the stock market rallied to its best week in four years. Mortgage rates did not fare as […]

Read the full article →

The Fed Gets Ambiguous; Mortgage Rates Fall

March 22, 2007

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee spoke with ambiguity yesterday in electing to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 5.250%. So far, mortgage rates have benefited. A major goal of the Fed is to manage the expectations of markets.  Therefore, what the Fed does is sometimes not as important as what it says. […]

Read the full article →

The Fed Sets The Fed Funds Rate Sets Prime Rate

March 21, 2007

This afternoon, the Fed adjourns after a two-day meeting and it is widely expected that they will leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 5.250%. So, what is the Fed Funds Rate and why does it matter to everyday people? The Fed Funds Rate matters to you and me because it is used to calculate […]

Read the full article →

CPI Is Higher And Contained In Comfort Range

February 21, 2007

Markets did not like today’s Consumer Price Index figures which came in higher than expected.  However, the downbeat mood this morning is not enough to reverse the recent downward trend in mortgage rates. The chart at right shows CPI over the past two years and the band collars the Fed’s articulated “comfort zone” for inflation. […]

Read the full article →

The Week In Review (February 19, 2007) : What To Watch For

February 19, 2007

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke carried the biggest stick in the mortgage rate market last week.  His “Goldilocks” testimony before the Senate Banking Committee spoke of favorable growth and subsiding inflation. Markets expected a harsher tone from Bearded Ben and that is why rates dropped post-testimony — the expectation diminished that the Fed will raise the […]

Read the full article →

Markets React To Bernanke’s Testimony

February 14, 2007

Addressing the Senate Banking Committee this morning, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the speech that most people expected: The current monetary policy (read: Fed Funds Rate) is at a level that both sustains economic growth, and tempers inflation pressures. In addition, inflation expectations “appear to have remain contained,” Bernanke said.  He called that “encouraging” and […]

Read the full article →

Plosser Tells Philadelphia: Rates May Need To Increase

February 7, 2007

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee held the Fed Funds Rate at its current level and indicated that the economy is expanding at an acceptable pace.  This morning, however, a Federal Reserve Bank President delivered a public speech to the contrary. In prepared remarks to the local Chamber of Commerce, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank […]

Read the full article →

← Previous Entries

Next Entries →