consumer

The Week In Review (February 5, 2007) : What To Watch For

February 5, 2007

Last week was not for the weak-hearted as mortgage rates bounced around like a fumbled Super Bowl football.  In a widely-expected move, the Federal Reserve held the Fed Funds Rate at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting, stating that growth is “moderate” and that inflation pressures may be subsiding. Consumer spending represents two-thirds of the […]

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Upward Revisions Keeps Weak Job Data From Moving Rates

February 2, 2007

This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed that 111,000 new jobs were created in January, short of Wall Street’s 155,000 expectations.  The weaker-than-expected figure did not give mortgage markets a reason to rally, however, because December’s figures were revised higher by 39,000 and November’s by 42,000. Traders have shrugged off the data for three major reasons: […]

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The Week In Review (January 22, 2007) : What To Watch For

January 22, 2007

Last week, economic data showed that the economy continues to grow at a healthy pace and that last year’s fears of an economic recession may have been overblown; wholesale and consumer prices were up 1.1% and 2.5% annually, respectively. With no clear recessionary indicators present in the market, long-term mortgages such as the 30-year fixed […]

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The Irrelevance of The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey

January 19, 2007

Today’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed that Americans are feeling terrific about the state of the economy.  The index jumped to 98.0 in January from last month’s 91.7 level. On a broader level, this is not an important piece of data for mortgage markets.  The idea is that a more confident consumer will […]

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Why PPI Exceeded Expectations And Nobody Minded

January 17, 2007

With all signs pointing towards economic growth, markets were not all surprised when today’s Producer Price Index registered higher than expected.  Mortgage markets are flat in response to the data. The impact of PPI is muted for three other major reasons, too: At 2.0%, the year-over-year increase in PPI is much lower than it has […]

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The Week In Review (January 15, 2007) : What To Watch For

January 15, 2007

In a week practically devoid of economic news, mortgage rates trended higher last week amid falling oil prices and surprise strength in Holiday Season spending. Investors are jittery about the U.S. economy.  Since it stopped raising the Fed Funds Rate this past summer, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly told markets that it is expecting an […]

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It Was “Happy Holidays” for Retailers in December

January 12, 2007

For all of the talk about the slowdown in consumer spending, it appears that this Holiday Season was a winner.  This morning’s Retail Sales report doubled economists’ expectations by showing 1.0% growth. This is just one more inflationary pressure in the economy and makes it less likely that the Fed will lower the Fed Funds […]

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How Will Oil’s Plunging Prices Impact Mortgage Rates

January 9, 2007

This summer, oil crossed the $77 threshold per barrel and since then, it has been on a steady decline. Today, it crossed $58 per barrel. Lower prices for oil should reduce heating bills and gas pump receipts for Americans this winter. High oil prices are a stimulus for inflation so on the surface this would […]

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