PCE

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : October 27, 2008

October 27, 2008

Mortgage markets followed the recurring trading pattern of 2008 last week — volatility, volatility, and more volatility. After opening with a strong performance that drove rates down, late-week fears of a global recession reversed that path.  Mortgage rates ended the week unchanged. This was an unexpected outcome for the week considering that: The dollar gained […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : October 27, 2008

October 27, 2008

Mortgage markets followed the recurring trading pattern of 2008 last week — volatility, volatility, and more volatility. After opening with a strong performance that drove rates down, late-week fears of a global recession reversed that path. Mortgage rates ended the week unchanged. This was an unexpected outcome for the week considering that: The dollar gained […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : September 29, 2008

September 29, 2008

Mortgage rates bounced around last week, ending up worse overall.  It was the second straight week in which rates deteriorated.  Sentiment was driven largely by the proposed Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 — a.k.a. The $700 Billion Bailout. The good news is that Congress drafted its bill Sunday evening and within the 110 pages, […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : June 23, 2008

June 23, 2008

Mortgage rates edged higher for the fifth straight week and the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now at a 10-month high. One reason why rates are spiking is because the temporary jolt from higher energy and food costs is starting to look like a longer-term trend. For example, high energy prices get a lot of press, but […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : May 27, 2008

May 27, 2008

The market optimism that had pushed mortgage rates lower since late-March reversed last week on ever-rising oil prices and a bleak outlook from the Federal Reserve. When gas prices reached $3.93 Friday, it re-ignited inflation concerns and inflation, you’ll remember, is the enemy of mortgage rates. As expected, mortgage rates spiked into Friday’s market close. […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : April 28, 2008

April 28, 2008

Mortgage markets lost ground last week on inflation concerns and a general feeling that “the worst may be over” on Wall Street. As investors moved money into the stock market, mortgage rates ticked higher for the second straight week. The biggest story from last week was the rising cost of gasoline. Rising energy costs combined with rising […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : March 31, 2008

March 31, 2008

Mortgage rates were up last week on weak housing data and a growing nervousness about mortgage bond quality. Rates would have been up more if not for a tame inflation reading Friday. The Personal Consumption Expenditures report fell Friday to 2.0% year-over-year, putting it back within the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone of 1-2 percent. PCE […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : March 24, 2008

March 24, 2008

Conforming mortgage rates edged slightly lower for the second week in a row. Mortgage rates fell for two main reasons: The Federal Reserve offered fiscal support for troubled mortgage-backed securities A government group gave Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac permission to lend more of money to American homeowners These two actions combined to make mortgage-backed securities safer […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : February 25, 2008

February 25, 2008

It’s a big week for mortgage markets (again) and that should cause rates to fluctuate wildly (again). The volatility we’ve seen since December has not been for the faint of heart.  Even this past Friday, as mortgage rates were poised to end the week lower, a late-afternoon stock market rally reversed it. In the last […]

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The Week In Review (January 28, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 28, 2008

Mortgage rates change from day-to-day, but last week’s volatility was a record-breaker. After drooping through Tuesday and then skyrocketing Wednesday and Thursday, mortgage rates retreated slightly on Friday. By weeks’ end, rates were at their same levels from mid-December. This is in contrast to Tuesday, just after the Fed’s rate cut and before the stock […]

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The Week In Review (December 17, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 17, 2007

Last week proved once again: The Fed does not control mortgage rates. On Tuesday, after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250%, mortgage rates began an ascent that carried all the way through Friday’s close. As a result, mortgage rates are dramatically higher today than just one week ago. Other […]

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The Week In Review (November 26, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 26, 2007

In a holiday-shortened trading week, mortgage rates finished the week slightly improved. But, because many traders had left early for Thanksgiving, matching buyers and sellers at any given price proved to be an exercise.  Mortgage rates bounced wildly as a result. Between now and the New Year, expect the same volatility.  Fewer market players means […]

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The Week In Review (November 05, 2007) : What To Watch For

November 4, 2007

As we saw last week, the economy is simultaneously hot and cold.  This makes for a strange ride on Wall Street because stocks and bonds tend to move on emotion rather than on fact. This “mob mentality” is one reason why mortgage rates have bounced up and down so much lately. For example, we saw […]

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The Week In Review (October 29, 2007) : What To Watch For

October 29, 2007

Strong earnings from Apple, American Express, Microsoft and Boeing helped to keep markets in balance last week after reports of weak business spending and poor housing data (again). The available data doesn’t seem to match corporate earnings reports and that is giving investors fits. Mortgage rates bounced around last week on the lack of conviction […]

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The Fed Descends On Jackson Hole, The Market Won’t Get What It’s Looking For

August 31, 2007

Today is a holiday-shortened session but that doesn’t mean that the markets will be on vacation. The day’s big event is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. Investors will dissect every phrase looking for clues about the economy and housing. More importantly, markets want some advance […]

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The Week In Review (July 2, 2007) : What To Watch For

July 2, 2007

As expected, Ben Bernanke & Co. left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 5.250% last week but that didn’t stop markets from improving slightly overall. Markets were buoyed by a low reading on last Friday’s PCE index, the Fed’s favored inflation measure. Low inflation readings are good for mortgage rates so it’s no surprise that […]

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With The Next Fed Meeting 13 Days Away, Markets Will Listen For Clues

April 26, 2007

Mortgage rates have been fairly lazy this week, reaching a near flatline.  Even the much-talked about housing data didn’t do much to unperch markets from their current levels. This afternoon, Fed officials Yellen, Fisher, and Mishkin each speak to the public in separate appearances.  If data can’t move mortgage rates, perhaps opinion can. Of the group, […]

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The Week In Review (April 2, 2007) : What To Watch For

April 2, 2007

Last week, Ben Bernanke’s testimony before Congress served as a stark wake-up call that inflation is not going away so easily. Later in the week, hard data backed that up.  PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, beat expectations and pushed the year-over-year increase to 2.4%. The Fed hopes that PCE will be 2.0% by 2008 […]

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The Week In Review (March 26, 2007) : What To Watch For

March 26, 2007

The Fed held the Fed Funds Rate at 5.250% last week and included verbiage in its Press Release that the FFR may have to come down before it goes up again.  This gave investors reason to cheer and the stock market rallied to its best week in four years. Mortgage rates did not fare as […]

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The Week In Review (February 26, 2007) : What To Watch For

February 26, 2007

Aside from CPI, last week was quiet on the economic data front.  Traders used the week to catch their breath and look around a bit at market conditions.  They liked what they saw and strong demand for bonds pushed mortgage rates down. This week, the big Market Mover Day is Thursday, coinciding with the release […]

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