mortgage bonds

Forget The Dow Jones: How The Treasury’s Economy Revival Outline Helped Mortgage Rates

February 11, 2009

His speech was much anticipated, but it was what Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner didn’t say Tuesday that caused mortgage markets to improve. Mostly it was because of “safe-haven” buying. Safe-haven buying is when investors move cash to the safest investments possible for fear of losing their money elsewhere.

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How To Shop For Mortgages In A "Vacation Week"

December 30, 2008

Mortgage markets are like any other market — in order for goods to change hands, a buyer and a seller must first reach an agreement to “trade” at a specific price point. In general, the more buyers and sellers there are for a particular item, the easier it is to find that “fair value” and make the deal. An abundant number of buyers and sellers often creates a liquid market in which assets — in this case, mortgage bonds — can be sold rapidly with minimal loss

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Making English Out Of Fed-Speak (August 2008 Edition)

August 5, 2008

For the second consecutive meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 2.000 percent. In its press release, the Federal Reserve addresses inflation, saying that it “has been high”, fingering energy and commodity costs as culprits.  The Fed does expects inflation to moderate later this year, however. Regarding recession, the Fed […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : June 16, 2008

June 16, 2008

Mortgage rates moved higher last week on lingering concerns about inflation, the fourth straight week in which rates rose. Mortgage rates are now as high as they’ve been since October 2007. Because inflation devalues mortgage bonds, market players are quick to unload them when signs of inflation are present. Last week, there were several such signs: […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : June 9, 2008

June 9, 2008

There was no rest for the mortgage-rate weary last week. As mortgage bonds sold off early in the week, sharp rate hikes followed. A steady stream of better-than-expected economic reports had re-ignited inflation fears, drawing money from the bond market. On Friday, however, the money flow reversed on a triple threat to the U.S. economy: The […]

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The Impact Of Falling Oil Prices On Mortgage Rates

May 30, 2008

Falling oil prices is one reason why mortgage rates are dropping for the first time in 6 days. Oil is off $9 per barrel from last week, a shift that correlates to $0.23 per gallon of unleaded gas, roughly. This drop is good news for both home buyers and “rate shoppers” — high gas prices […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : May 27, 2008

May 27, 2008

The market optimism that had pushed mortgage rates lower since late-March reversed last week on ever-rising oil prices and a bleak outlook from the Federal Reserve. When gas prices reached $3.93 Friday, it re-ignited inflation concerns and inflation, you’ll remember, is the enemy of mortgage rates. As expected, mortgage rates spiked into Friday’s market close. […]

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How Spiking Oil Prices Have Mortgage Rates In Tow

May 23, 2008

High oil prices are derailing the mortgage market this week, taking an almost-vertical path higher. Since mid-February, prices are up by 50 percent. Rising oil prices can be a threat the U.S. economy because with every extra dollar that Americans pay to energy companies, there is less money available for every other company that makes […]

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Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Falling Even Though The Economy Is Shedding Jobs

May 2, 2008

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy shed 20,000 jobs in April 2008.  The labor force now counts at 146 million people as employed. Normally, a loss of jobs would foretell economic weakness and would be a good thing for mortgage rate shoppers.  Today, though, traders had been expecting a larger loss of […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : April 14, 2008

April 14, 2008

Through 5 days of see-saw trading, mortgage rates ended last week relatively flat; the downward tick into Friday’s close was a boon for home buyers this past weekend. It may be short-lived, however. Oil continues to sit near all-time highs and a slew of inflation-related data is crossing the wires this week. When inflation pressures are […]

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What 98 Percent Of Traders Think About The Fed’s Next Move

April 9, 2008

In three weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee will meet again and markets anticipate another cut to the Fed Funds Rate. Based on data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland at the close of business yesterday, traders put the probabilities of the Fed’s next move at: 62 percent chance that the Fed Funds Rate falls to […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : March 24, 2008

March 24, 2008

Conforming mortgage rates edged slightly lower for the second week in a row. Mortgage rates fell for two main reasons: The Federal Reserve offered fiscal support for troubled mortgage-backed securities A government group gave Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac permission to lend more of money to American homeowners These two actions combined to make mortgage-backed securities safer […]

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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : February 25, 2008

February 25, 2008

It’s a big week for mortgage markets (again) and that should cause rates to fluctuate wildly (again). The volatility we’ve seen since December has not been for the faint of heart.  Even this past Friday, as mortgage rates were poised to end the week lower, a late-afternoon stock market rally reversed it. In the last […]

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How The Stock Market Rally Was Terrible For Mortgage Rates

January 24, 2008

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 631.86 points in the last three hours of trading yesterday as traders piled into equities. Fueling the rally?  The bond market. For as much as stocks gained today, bonds lost.  Including mortgage bonds.  The dramatic sell-off created a huge swing in mortgage rates and erased nearly all of 2008’s rate improvements. […]

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The Week In Review (January 22, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 22, 2008

As promised, last week was heavy on data and on drama.  And mortgage rates continued their slide lower. This week, by contrast, is devoid of data and markets are already digesting the Federal Reserve’s surprise 0.750% rate cut this morning. Mortgage rates are falling in response, but not because of what the Fed did as much […]

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Which Leads Which Lower: Mortgage Rates Or The Fed Funds Rate?

January 16, 2008

It’s a point that’s always worth repeating: Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve do not control mortgage rates This is particularly relevant today as newspapers, television programs, and market pundits posit that the U.S. is in the midst of a recession. The latest evidence supporting that assertion is that Retail Sales grew at its slowest […]

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The Week In Review (January 14, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 14, 2008

Markets are welcoming the return of cold, hard data this week. Most of last week was spent making sense of Fed speakers, recessionary fears, and a takeover of the nation’s largest lender. This week, we’ll find out if the recent fears of recession are on target, or overblown. The data deluge starts Tuesday with the […]

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The Week In Review (January 07, 2008) : What To Watch For

January 7, 2008

Stock markets tanked last week behind high oil prices and weak employment data. Amid a sell-off that led to a 4.5% decline in the S&P 500, investors sought safety in the bond markets. As a result, mortgage bonds improved last week, driving some mortgage rates to their lowest levels in two years. This week, with […]

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$100 Oil Could Mean More Than High Gas Prices For Americans

January 3, 2008

The price of oil briefly touched $100 per barrel yesterday, just short of the all-time inflation-adjusted high of $102.81 in April 1980. According to economic forecasting firm Global Insight, each $10-per-barrel increase in oil prices: Increases gas prices by 19 per gallon Cuts consumer spending by one-third of a percent Reduces employment by 100,000 Adds […]

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The Week In Review (December 24, 2007) : What To Watch For

December 24, 2007

Mortgage rates moved away from the best levels of the year last week with force, and this week could resemble last. Markets have been grappling with conflicting signals about the U.S. economy. On one hand, there is evidence of inflation in the form of higher cost of living.  On the other hand, there is evidence […]

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